{"id":2686,"date":"2025-09-18T16:57:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T07:57:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.manesaba.com\/blog\/?p=2686"},"modified":"2025-09-27T09:06:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T00:06:00","slug":"%e7%a0%b4%e7%94%a3%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87%e3%81%8b%e3%82%89%e5%ad%a6%e3%81%b6%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e3%83%aa%e3%82%b9%e3%82%af%e7%ae%a1%e7%90%86%e5%85%a5%e9%96%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.manesaba.com\/blog\/%e7%a0%b4%e7%94%a3%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87%e3%81%8b%e3%82%89%e5%ad%a6%e3%81%b6%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e3%83%aa%e3%82%b9%e3%82%af%e7%ae%a1%e7%90%86%e5%85%a5%e9%96%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8cc7\u5165\u9580\uff1a\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u304b\u3089\u5b66\u3076\u6295\u8cc7\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u7ba1\u7406\u5165\u9580"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text\" style=\"grid-template-columns:20% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/www.manesaba.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/-e1751656113597.png\" alt=\"\u30de\u30cd\u30b5\u30d0\u304f\u3093\u3073\u3063\u304f\u308a\" class=\"wp-image-1873 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6295\u8cc7\u5165\u9580\uff1a\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u304b\u3089\u5b66\u3076\u6295\u8cc7\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u7ba1\u7406\u5165\u9580<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u524d\u56de\u300c<a href=\"\/3\u3064\u306e\u6027\u683c\u8a3a\u65ad\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6295\u8cc7\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\/\">3\u3064\u306e\u6027\u683c\u8a3a\u65ad\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6295\u8cc7\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb<\/a>\u300d\u3067\u306f\u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u6027\u683c\u306b\u5408\u3063\u305f\u6295\u8cc7\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u898b\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u3067\u306f\u300c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u5132\u304b\u308b\u304b\u300d\u3070\u304b\u308a\u306b\u76ee\u304c\u884c\u304d\u304c\u3061\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u5927\u5207\u306a\u306e\u304c\u300c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u8ca0\u3051\u306a\u3044\u304b\u300d\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u5c02\u9580\u7684\u306a\u30c6\u30fc\u30de\u3001\u300c\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u540d\u524d\u3060\u3051\u805e\u304f\u3068\u6016\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u6559\u80b2\u306e\u5165\u308a\u53e3\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3068\u3066\u3082\u5927\u4e8b\u306a\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u306a\u3093\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65e9\u901f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u304a\u697d\u3057\u307f\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"mc-sim\" style=\"font-family:system-ui, -apple-system, Segoe UI, Roboto, 'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN', Meiryo, sans-serif; background:#f7f7f7; padding:16px; border-radius:12px; max-width:600px;\">\n  <h3 style=\"margin:0 0 12px;\">\u30e2\u30f3\u30c6\u30ab\u30eb\u30ed\u6cd5\uff1a\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/h3>\n  \n  <!-- \u5165\u529b\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0 -->\n  <div style=\"display:grid; grid-template-columns: 160px 1fr; gap:8px; margin-bottom:12px; font-size:14px;\">\n    <label for=\"winRate\">\u52dd\u7387(%)<\/label>\n    <input id=\"winRate\" type=\"number\" value=\"55\" min=\"0\" max=\"100\">\n    \n    <label for=\"capital\">\u5f53\u521d\u6295\u8cc7\u91d1\u984d(\u5186)<\/label>\n    <input id=\"capital\" type=\"number\" value=\"1000000\" step=\"1000\" min=\"0\">\n    \n    <label for=\"stopLoss\">\u640d\u5207\u7387(%)<\/label>\n    <input id=\"stopLoss\" type=\"number\" value=\"2\" step=\"0.1\" min=\"0\">\n    \n    <label for=\"takeProfit\">\u5229\u98df\u3044\u7387(%)<\/label>\n    <input id=\"takeProfit\" type=\"number\" value=\"3\" step=\"0.1\" min=\"0\">\n    \n    <label for=\"numTrades\">\u53d6\u5f15\u56de\u6570(\u56de)<\/label>\n    <input id=\"numTrades\" type=\"number\" value=\"200\" min=\"1\" step=\"1\">\n  <\/div>\n\n  <button id=\"runSim\" style=\"padding:6px 12px; border:none; border-radius:6px; background:#007bff; color:#fff; cursor:pointer;\">\n    \u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u5b9f\u884c\n  <\/button>\n  \n  <div id=\"mc-params\" style=\"margin-top:12px; font-size:14px; color:#333;\"><\/div>\n  <pre id=\"mc-output\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap; background:#fff; padding:12px; border:1px solid #ddd; border-radius:8px; font-size:14px; margin-top:8px;\"><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n(function(){\n  \"use strict\";\n\n  const NUM_TRIALS = 10000; \/\/ \u56fa\u5b9a\u65bd\u884c\u56de\u6570\n\n  \/\/ \u6b8b\u9ad8\u304c\u521d\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u91d1\u984d\u306e1\/10\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3089\u7834\u7523\n  function simulateOnce(winRate, capital, stopLoss, takeProfit, numTrades) {\n    let balance = capital;\n    const up   = 1 + (takeProfit \/ 100);\n    const down = 1 - (stopLoss  \/ 100);\n    const pWin = winRate \/ 100;\n    const ruinThreshold = capital \/ 10; \/\/ \u2605\u7834\u7523\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\n\n    for (let t = 0; t < numTrades; t++) {\n      if (Math.random() < pWin) {\n        balance *= up;\n      } else {\n        balance *= down;\n      }\n      if (balance <= ruinThreshold) {\n        return { finalBalance: balance, isRuin: true }; \/\/ \u9014\u4e2d\u3067\u7834\u7523\n      }\n    }\n    return { finalBalance: balance, isRuin: (balance <= ruinThreshold) };\n  }\n\n  function median(sortedArray) {\n    const n = sortedArray.length;\n    const mid = Math.floor(n \/ 2);\n    return (n % 2 === 0) ? (sortedArray[mid - 1] + sortedArray[mid]) \/ 2 : sortedArray[mid];\n  }\n\n  function formatJPY(n) {\n    return n.toLocaleString('ja-JP', { style: 'currency', currency: 'JPY', maximumFractionDigits: 0 });\n  }\n\n  function clamp(v, min, max){ return Math.min(Math.max(v, min), max); }\n\n  function runSimulation() {\n    \/\/ \u5165\u529b\u53d6\u5f97\n    let winRate    = parseFloat(document.getElementById('winRate').value);\n    let capital    = parseFloat(document.getElementById('capital').value);\n    let stopLoss   = parseFloat(document.getElementById('stopLoss').value);\n    let takeProfit = parseFloat(document.getElementById('takeProfit').value);\n    let numTrades  = parseInt(document.getElementById('numTrades').value, 10);\n\n    \/\/ \u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\n    winRate    = clamp(isNaN(winRate)?55:winRate, 0, 100);\n    capital    = Math.max(isNaN(capital)?1_000_000:capital, 0);\n    stopLoss   = Math.max(isNaN(stopLoss)?2:stopLoss, 0);\n    takeProfit = Math.max(isNaN(takeProfit)?3:takeProfit, 0);\n    numTrades  = Math.max(isNaN(numTrades)?200:numTrades, 1);\n\n    const balances = new Array(NUM_TRIALS);\n    let ruinCount = 0;\n\n    for (let i = 0; i < NUM_TRIALS; i++) {\n      const { finalBalance, isRuin } = simulateOnce(winRate, capital, stopLoss, takeProfit, numTrades);\n      balances[i] = finalBalance;\n      if (isRuin) ruinCount++;\n    }\n\n    balances.sort((a, b) => a - b);\n    const minBalance = balances[0];\n    const maxBalance = balances[balances.length - 1];\n    const medBalance = median(balances);\n    const ruinProb   = ruinCount \/ NUM_TRIALS;\n\n    document.getElementById('mc-params').textContent =\n      `\u52dd\u7387: ${winRate}% \/ \u521d\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1: ${formatJPY(capital)} \/ \u640d\u5207\u7387: ${stopLoss}% \/ \u5229\u98df\u3044\u7387: ${takeProfit}% \/ \u53d6\u5f15\u56de\u6570: ${numTrades}\u56de \/ \u65bd\u884c\u6570: ${NUM_TRIALS}\u56de \/ \u7834\u7523\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3: ${formatJPY(capital\/10)}\u4ee5\u4e0b`;\n\n    const out = [\n      `\u6700\u7d42\u6b8b\u9ad8\uff08\u6700\u5927\uff09: ${formatJPY(maxBalance)}`,\n      `\u6700\u7d42\u6b8b\u9ad8\uff08\u6700\u5c0f\uff09: ${formatJPY(minBalance)}`,\n      `\u6700\u7d42\u6b8b\u9ad8\uff08\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\uff09: ${formatJPY(medBalance)}`,\n      `\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387: ${(ruinProb * 100).toFixed(2)}%`\n    ].join('\\n');\n\n    document.getElementById('mc-output').textContent = out;\n  }\n\n  document.getElementById('runSim').addEventListener('click', runSimulation);\n})();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3044\u304b\u304c\u3067\u3057\u305f\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u306f\u3001\u300c\u305d\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u304c\u30bc\u30ed\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u300d\u3092\u6570\u5024\u5316\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<br>\u6295\u8cc7\u306b\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u300c\u611f\u899a\u300d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u300c\u6570\u5b57\u300d\u3067\u628a\u63e1\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304c\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u5f37\u307f\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u30e2\u30f3\u30c6\u30ab\u30eb\u30ed\u6cd5\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u624b\u6cd5\u30021\u56de\u306e\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u6570\u4e07\u56de\u3082\u4eee\u60f3\u7684\u306b\u53d6\u5f15\u3092\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u7834\u7523\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u51fa\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u30de\u30cd\u30b5\u30d0\u304f\u3093<\/strong>\uff1a\u304a\u3058\u3055\u3093\u3001\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u3063\u3066\u8a00\u8449\u3060\u3051\u3067\u5fc3\u81d3\u306b\u60aa\u3044\u306d\u2026\u3002<br><strong>\u79c1<\/strong>\uff1a\u78ba\u304b\u306b\u6016\u305d\u3046\u306b\u805e\u3053\u3048\u308b\u3051\u3069\u3001\u8981\u306f\u300c\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3067\u904b\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u300d\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u306a\u3093\u3060\u3088\u3002<br><strong>\u30de\u30cd\u30b5\u30d0\u304f\u3093<\/strong>\uff1a\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3001\u4e8b\u6545\u7387\u307f\u305f\u3044\u306a\u3082\u306e\u304b\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30c7\u30d5\u30a9\u30eb\u30c8\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3068\u304a\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u52dd\u7387\uff1a55%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u640d\u5207\u308a\uff1a\uff0d2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5229\u98df\u3044\uff1a\uff0b3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53d6\u5f15\u56de\u6570\uff1a200\u56de<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u79c1\u304c\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u7834\u7523\u78ba\u7387\u306f0%\u3002<br>\u6700\u60aa\u306e\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u3082\u8cc7\u91d1\u306f14\u4e079,613\u5186\u5897\u3048\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3068\u5e74\u9593\u7d0414%\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u300c\u30c7\u30a4\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u30671\u65e51\u56de\u3084\u308b\u300d\u3068\u300c\u67081\u56de\u3060\u3051\u3084\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3067\u306f\u610f\u5473\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u53d6\u5f15\u56de\u6570\u304c\u591a\u3044\u307b\u3069\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u306f\u5f37\u3044\u7cbe\u795e\u529b\u3082\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u30de\u30cd\u30b5\u30d0\u304f\u3093<\/strong>\uff1a\u304a\u3058\u3055\u3093\u30010%\u3063\u3066\u51fa\u308b\u3068\u300c\u7d76\u5bfe\u5927\u4e08\u592b\uff01\u300d\u3063\u3066\u601d\u3063\u3061\u3083\u3044\u305d\u3046\u2026\u3002<br><strong>\u79c1<\/strong>\uff1a\u305d\u3053\u304c\u843d\u3068\u3057\u7a74\u306a\u3093\u3060\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u4e0d\u898f\u5247\u3067\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u901a\u308a\u306b\u52d5\u304f\u4fdd\u8a3c\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3060\u304b\u3089\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u300c\u5b89\u5168\u7387\u3092\u6e2c\u308b\u76ee\u5b89\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u4f7f\u3046\u306e\u304c\u6b63\u89e3\u3060\u3088\u3002<br><strong>\u30de\u30cd\u30b5\u30d0\u304f\u3093<\/strong>\uff1a\u3075\u3080\u3075\u3080\u3001\u6570\u5b57\u306b\u5b89\u5fc3\u3057\u3059\u304e\u3061\u3083\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3093\u3060\u306d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr 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